scenario_simulation
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scenario_simulation [2022/01/04 10:27] – [Annex: Land use modelling] himics | scenario_simulation [2022/11/07 10:23] – external edit 127.0.0.1 | ||
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**Introduction** | **Introduction** | ||
- | This technical paper explains how the most aggregate level of the CAPRI area allocation in the context of the supply models has been re-specified in the TRUSTEE project((https: | + | This technical paper explains how the most aggregate level of the CAPRI area allocation in the context of the supply models has been re-specified in the TRUSTEE project((https:// |
)) and subsequently adopted in the CAPRI trunk. The former specification for land supply and transformation functions focused on agricultural land use and the transformation of agricultural land between arable land and grass land((See https:// | )) and subsequently adopted in the CAPRI trunk. The former specification for land supply and transformation functions focused on agricultural land use and the transformation of agricultural land between arable land and grass land((See https:// | ||
)). | )). | ||
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During the subsequent period, CAPRI was increasingly adapted to analyses of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission studies. Examples include CAPRI-ECC, GGELS, ECAMPA-X, AgCLim50-X, (European Commission, Joint Research Centre), ClipByFood (Swedish Energy Board), SUPREMA (H2020). This vein of research is very likely to gain in importance in the future. | During the subsequent period, CAPRI was increasingly adapted to analyses of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission studies. Examples include CAPRI-ECC, GGELS, ECAMPA-X, AgCLim50-X, (European Commission, Joint Research Centre), ClipByFood (Swedish Energy Board), SUPREMA (H2020). This vein of research is very likely to gain in importance in the future. | ||
- | In order to improve land related climate gas modelling within CAPRI, it was deemed appropriate to (1) extend the land use modelled to //all// available land in the EU (i.e. not only agriculture), | + | In order to improve land related climate gas modelling within CAPRI, it was deemed appropriate to (1) extend the land use modelled to //all// available land in the EU (i.e. not only agriculture), |
)), but as always, an operational version emerged only after integrating efforts by researchers in several projects working at various institutions. | )), but as always, an operational version emerged only after integrating efforts by researchers in several projects working at various institutions. | ||
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Since each transition is non-negative, | Since each transition is non-negative, | ||
- | [CHART] | + | {{: |
Figure 1: Gamma density graph for mode=1 and various standard deviations. “acc”=" | Figure 1: Gamma density graph for mode=1 and various standard deviations. “acc”=" | ||
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subject to | subject to | ||
- | $$\text{LU}_{k} - \sum_{l}^{}T_{\text{lk}} = 0\text{~~~~~~~~~}\left\lbrack \tau_{k} \right\rbrack$$ | + | $$\text{LU}_{k} - \sum_{l}^{}T_{\text{lk}} = 0 \; \left\lbrack \tau_{k} \right\rbrack$$ |
- | $$\text{LU}_{l}^{\text{initial}} - \sum_{k}^{}T_{\text{lk}} = 0\text{~~~~~~~~~}\left\lbrack \tau_{l}^{\text{initial}} \right\rbrack$$ | + | $$\text{LU}_{l}^{\text{initial}} - \sum_{k}^{}T_{\text{lk}} = 0\;\left\lbrack \tau_{l}^{\text{initial}} \right\rbrack$$ |
$$\text{LU}_{k} - \sum_{i}^{}{\text{shar}e_{\text{ki}}\text{LEV}L_{i}} = 0$$ | $$\text{LU}_{k} - \sum_{i}^{}{\text{shar}e_{\text{ki}}\text{LEV}L_{i}} = 0$$ | ||
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When using the transition probabilities in the consistency condition for initial land use we obtain | When using the transition probabilities in the consistency condition for initial land use we obtain | ||
- | $$\text{LU}_{l}^{\text{initial}} - \sum_{k}^{}T_{\text{lk}}^{1} = 0\text{~~~~~~~~}$$ | + | $$\text{LU}_{l}^{\text{initial}} - \sum_{k}^{}T_{\text{lk}}^{1} = 0$$ |
- | $$\Longleftrightarrow \text{LU}_{l}^{\text{initial}} = \sum_{k}^{}{P_{\text{lk}}^{}\text{LU}}_{l}^{\text{iniital}}\text{~~~~~~~~}$$ | + | $$\Longleftrightarrow \text{LU}_{l}^{\text{initial}} = \sum_{k}^{}{P_{\text{lk}}^{}\text{LU}}_{l}^{\text{iniital}}$$ |
$$\Leftrightarrow 1 = \sum_{k}^{}P_{\text{lk}}$$ | $$\Leftrightarrow 1 = \sum_{k}^{}P_{\text{lk}}$$ | ||
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$$\text{LU}_{k} - \sum_{i}^{}{\text{shar}e_{\text{ki}}\text{LEV}L_{i}} = 0$$ | $$\text{LU}_{k} - \sum_{i}^{}{\text{shar}e_{\text{ki}}\text{LEV}L_{i}} = 0$$ | ||
- | $$\text{LU}_{k} - \sum_{l}^{}T_{\text{lk}} = 0\text{~~~~~~~~~}\left\lbrack \tau_{k} \right\rbrack$$ | + | $$\text{LU}_{k} - \sum_{l}^{}T_{\text{lk}} = 0\;\left\lbrack \tau_{k} \right\rbrack$$ |
- | $$\text{LU}_{l}^{\text{initial}} - \sum_{k}^{}T_{\text{lk}} = 0\text{~~~~~~~~~}\left\lbrack \tau_{l}^{\text{initial}} \right\rbrack$$ | + | $$\text{LU}_{l}^{\text{initial}} - \sum_{k}^{}T_{\text{lk}} = 0\;\left\lbrack \tau_{l}^{\text{initial}} \right\rbrack$$ |
$$\ \left( \alpha_{\text{lk}} - 1 \right)T_{\text{lk}}^{- 1} - \beta_{\text{lk}} + \tau_{k}^{} + \tau_{l}^{\text{initial}} = 0$$ | $$\ \left( \alpha_{\text{lk}} - 1 \right)T_{\text{lk}}^{- 1} - \beta_{\text{lk}} + \tau_{k}^{} + \tau_{l}^{\text{initial}} = 0$$ | ||
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**Technical implementation** | **Technical implementation** | ||
- | The key equations corresponding to the approach explained above are collected in file supply_model.gms or the included files supply\declare_calibration_models_for_luc.gms and supply/ | + | The key equations corresponding to the approach explained above are collected in file supply_model.gms or the included files supply/declare_calibration_models_for_luc.gms and supply/ |
The new land supply specification is only activated if the global variable %trustee_land%==on which may be set via the CAPRI GUI. In order to store the results of the calibration in a compact way that is compatible with the existing code, the existing parameter files “pmppar_XX.gdx” was used. The parameters of the land supply functions, called “c” and “D” above, were stored on two parameters “p_pmpCnstLandTypes” and “p_pmpQuadLandTypes”. As a new symbol (p_pmpCnstLandTypes) is introduced in an existing file, the first run of CAPRI after setting %trustee_land%==on may give errors if the file exists already but has been used with the previous land supply specification before. In this case it helps to delete or rename the old pmppar files. | The new land supply specification is only activated if the global variable %trustee_land%==on which may be set via the CAPRI GUI. In order to store the results of the calibration in a compact way that is compatible with the existing code, the existing parameter files “pmppar_XX.gdx” was used. The parameters of the land supply functions, called “c” and “D” above, were stored on two parameters “p_pmpCnstLandTypes” and “p_pmpQuadLandTypes”. As a new symbol (p_pmpCnstLandTypes) is introduced in an existing file, the first run of CAPRI after setting %trustee_land%==on may give errors if the file exists already but has been used with the previous land supply specification before. In this case it helps to delete or rename the old pmppar files. |
scenario_simulation.txt · Last modified: 2023/09/08 12:07 by massfeller