the_complete_and_consistent_data_base_coco_for_the_national_scale
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the_complete_and_consistent_data_base_coco_for_the_national_scale [2020/02/13 08:33] – [COCO2: Estimation procedure] matsz | the_complete_and_consistent_data_base_coco_for_the_national_scale [2020/02/13 09:26] – [COCO2: Estimation procedure] matsz | ||
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Parameters are | Parameters are | ||
- | | \(HCOM_{m, | + | | \(HCOM_{m, |
- | |- | + | | \(UVAD_{m,j,t\_1}\) |Consumer price from last simulation of year t+1| |
- | |UVADm,j,t_1 Consumer price from last simulation of year t+1 | + | |\(CPS_{m,j,k}\) |Support points for consumer prices |
- | CPSm,j,k Support points for consumer prices | + | |\(DCPS_{m,j,k}\) |Support points for consumer price changes| |
- | DCPSm, | + | |\(EXS_{m,FOPOS,k}\) |Support points for group expenditures| |
- | EXSm, | + | |\(TOFACS_{m,k}\) |Support points for total food expenditure slack| |
- | TOFACSm,k Support points for total food expenditure slack | + | |\(PQ_k\) |A priori probabilities for support points| |
- | PQk A priori probabilities for support points | + | |\(TOFO_{m,t}\) |Total food expenditure and entropy variables| |
- | TOFOm,t Total food expenditure | + | |\(PE_{m,j,t}\) |Probability of support points for consumer prices| |
- | and entropy variables | + | |\(PED_{m,j,t}\) |Probability of support points for consumer price changes| |
- | PEm,j,t Probability of support points for consumer prices | + | |\(CP_{m,j}\) |Consumer prices| |
- | PEDm,j,t Probability of support points for consumer price changes | + | |\(DCP_{m,j}\) |Consumer price changes| |
- | CPm,j Consumer prices | + | |\(PEX_{m,FOPOS,t}\) |Probability of support points for group expenditure| |
- | DCPm,j Consumer price changes | + | |\(PFAC_{m,k}\) |Probability of support points for food expenditure slack| |
- | PEXm, | + | |\(EX_{mFOPOS}\) |Group expenditures| |
- | PFACm, | + | |\(TOFAC_m\) |Food expenditure slack| |
- | EXmFOPOS Group expenditures | + | |
- | TOFACm Food expenditure slack | + | |
+ | Constraints are as follows: | ||
+ | Summing up probabilities for support points | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | \sum_{k\forall_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | \sum_{k\forall_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | \sum_{k\forall_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | \sum_{k\forall_{m}(TOFAC.LO_m\ge TOFAC.UP_m)} PFAC_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | Define consumer price changes from support points | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | DCP_{m,j} = \sum_{k\forall_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | Of course consumer prices changes are also related to the last simulation result (which is for T+1 due to backward looping) | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | DCP_{m,j} =UVAD_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | Define consumer prices from support points and probabilities | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | CP_{m,j} = \sum_{k\forall_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | Define group expenditure from support points and probabilities | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | EX_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | Define total expenditure slack from support points and probabilities | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | TOFAC_m=\sum_{k\forall_{m}(TOFAC.LO_m\ge TOFAC.UP_m)} PFAC_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | Exhaustion of food expenditure may be relaxed with a slack factor different from one. However, this “last resort” to achieve feasibility in the expenditure allocation problem is limited to years and countries with precarious data and subject to strong penalties. | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | \sum_{FOPOS} EX_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | Consistency of group expenditure | ||
+ | |||
+ | \begin{equation} | ||
+ | EX_{m, | ||
+ | \end{equation} | ||
+ | |||
+ | For most countries the exhaustion of total expenditure is the only evident hard constraint (and even this is relaxed in problem cases). However, as the penalties for group expenditure are set high, and furthermore as the range of expenditure supports defines additional implicit hard constraints, | ||
+ | |||
+ | **Include file // | ||
+ | |||
+ | The initialisation, | ||
+ | |||
+ | * The initialisation tries to ensure positive consumer margins by the assignments of expected values and by specifying bounds on estimated consumer prices. The reference point for these margins is an average of EU and national prices that reflects the importance of domestic sales vs. imports. | ||
+ | * Bounds and spread of supports around expected consumer prices are set high for items without ILO style prices (say “table olives” TABO) or where the fit of available price information is questionable (e.g. cabbage prices for “OVEG”). | ||
+ | * A checking parameter (“p_checks”) permits to check the iniitalisation in case of infeasibilites. The most frequent case observed in the last years is that lower bounds on oils expenditure become binding, suggesting the need for some systematic mismatch of price and expenditure information for this group. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ====COCO2: Final completions==== |
the_complete_and_consistent_data_base_coco_for_the_national_scale.txt · Last modified: 2022/11/07 10:23 by 127.0.0.1