capri:faq_e
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capri:faq_e [2012/02/02 10:01] – external edit 127.0.0.1 | capri:faq_e [2022/11/07 10:23] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1 | ||
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and global agricultural markets at country or country block level.</ | and global agricultural markets at country or country block level.</ | ||
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with a complex global model for trade in agricultural products. The spatial downscaling part to 1x1 km, which covers crop shares, yield, stocking densities, | with a complex global model for trade in agricultural products. The spatial downscaling part to 1x1 km, which covers crop shares, yield, stocking densities, | ||
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fertilizer applciation rates and detailed environmental indicators</ | fertilizer applciation rates and detailed environmental indicators</ | ||
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agricultural activity and each region; prices, supply and demand positions at country level; environmental indicators (gas emissions, N,P,K | agricultural activity and each region; prices, supply and demand positions at country level; environmental indicators (gas emissions, N,P,K | ||
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balances) at regional level; producer and consumer prices, supply and demand positions as well as bilateral trade flows with attached prices, transport costs and tariffs globally for each trade block; | balances) at regional level; producer and consumer prices, supply and demand positions as well as bilateral trade flows with attached prices, transport costs and tariffs globally for each trade block; | ||
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the costs of Common Agricultural Policy broken down to individual of policy instruments; | the costs of Common Agricultural Policy broken down to individual of policy instruments; | ||
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and many other interesting aspects of agriculture.</ | and many other interesting aspects of agriculture.</ | ||
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<P>To simulate and compare ex-ante for a medium term horizon (8-11 year) impacts of different set of agricultural policies.</ | <P>To simulate and compare ex-ante for a medium term horizon (8-11 year) impacts of different set of agricultural policies.</ | ||
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Any remaining questions may be sent via e-mail to a member of the CAPRI network, if they cannot be answered with the FAQ list.</ | Any remaining questions may be sent via e-mail to a member of the CAPRI network, if they cannot be answered with the FAQ list.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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the reform proposed in the context of the " | the reform proposed in the context of the " | ||
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and its extension in 2004 with different implementation options at Member state level. The current 2020 baseline is based on the so-called " | and its extension in 2004 with different implementation options at Member state level. The current 2020 baseline is based on the so-called " | ||
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subsidies, TRQ expansion, bi-lateral agricultural trade agreements with MercoSur and the Mediterrean countries)</ | subsidies, TRQ expansion, bi-lateral agricultural trade agreements with MercoSur and the Mediterrean countries)</ | ||
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</UL> | </UL> | ||
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On top, results are stored in a data base and can from there exported e.g. to spreadsheets.</ | On top, results are stored in a data base and can from there exported e.g. to spreadsheets.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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simulation runs, and you may only need to download these results to generate from there your own tables, maps and analysis. | simulation runs, and you may only need to download these results to generate from there your own tables, maps and analysis. | ||
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You may be lucky in scanning the list of <A HREF="/ | You may be lucky in scanning the list of <A HREF="/ | ||
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for any serious analysis when new policies are analysed. The version system hosting CAPRI allows to set up " | for any serious analysis when new policies are analysed. The version system hosting CAPRI allows to set up " | ||
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automatically assume to find support from experienced members of the CAPRI network in case of such changes. Equally, please reflect that your changes | automatically assume to find support from experienced members of the CAPRI network in case of such changes. Equally, please reflect that your changes | ||
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are not automatically ported to a new master version. In doubt, contact a member of the CAPRI network before any changes.</ | are not automatically ported to a new master version. In doubt, contact a member of the CAPRI network before any changes.</ | ||
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To do so, availability of data in harmonized definitions is typically the main | To do so, availability of data in harmonized definitions is typically the main | ||
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can be chosen. The supply side is based on explicit profit optimisation under constraints, | can be chosen. The supply side is based on explicit profit optimisation under constraints, | ||
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or linking it to engineering data or results from bio-physical models. The international trade model is a square system of equations based on behavioural functions, which allows to capture many products, market and interactions simultaneously. | or linking it to engineering data or results from bio-physical models. The international trade model is a square system of equations based on behavioural functions, which allows to capture many products, market and interactions simultaneously. | ||
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for analysis, even running the system for single countries, only. | for analysis, even running the system for single countries, only. | ||
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the same functional forms for the behavioural functions are used for each of the regions, again a template approach.</ | the same functional forms for the behavioural functions are used for each of the regions, again a template approach.</ | ||
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on central anchor prices - typically called world market prices - as in net trade models. However, average world producer or consumer prices are calculated after simulation runs.</ | on central anchor prices - typically called world market prices - as in net trade models. However, average world producer or consumer prices are calculated after simulation runs.</ | ||
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Each major arable crop is however present in an intensive and extensive variant.</ | Each major arable crop is however present in an intensive and extensive variant.</ | ||
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On top, yield results shown for higher regional aggregates (Member States, Regions) are a weighted average over the NUTS II regions, | On top, yield results shown for higher regional aggregates (Member States, Regions) are a weighted average over the NUTS II regions, | ||
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so that yields above regional level may change even if no yield changes are simulated per NUTS II region. And last not least, | so that yields above regional level may change even if no yield changes are simulated per NUTS II region. And last not least, | ||
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version is now fully operational. It breaks down the consistently each NUTS II region into up to 9 most important farm type differentiated | version is now fully operational. It breaks down the consistently each NUTS II region into up to 9 most important farm type differentiated | ||
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by farm size and specialization plus a residual type.</ | by farm size and specialization plus a residual type.</ | ||
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<P>A so-called aggregate programming model for each region which explicitly maximizes profit under constraints. These models are solved | <P>A so-called aggregate programming model for each region which explicitly maximizes profit under constraints. These models are solved | ||
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independently from each other at fixed prices for outputs and inputs. They cover about 50 production activities. The models are non-linear | independently from each other at fixed prices for outputs and inputs. They cover about 50 production activities. The models are non-linear | ||
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both in constraints and the objective function.</ | both in constraints and the objective function.</ | ||
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for crops. Emission standards can be added on demand.</ | for crops. Emission standards can be added on demand.</ | ||
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the marginal impact of the land supply curve.</ | the marginal impact of the land supply curve.</ | ||
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the costs of intermediate inputs based on the fixed and given input coefficients, | the costs of intermediate inputs based on the fixed and given input coefficients, | ||
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(feed input coefficient are not fixed, but vary depending on feed prices and requirement constraints), | (feed input coefficient are not fixed, but vary depending on feed prices and requirement constraints), | ||
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cost function depending on the actual mix of activities. For sugar beet, a special sub-module is based on maximizing expected revenues | cost function depending on the actual mix of activities. For sugar beet, a special sub-module is based on maximizing expected revenues | ||
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to cover yield uncertainity and the A,B,C sugar beet regimes of the EU.</ | to cover yield uncertainity and the A,B,C sugar beet regimes of the EU.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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the different premiums of the Common Agricultural Policy. Recently, major programs from Pillar II of the CAP (Less Favourate Area support, | the different premiums of the Common Agricultural Policy. Recently, major programs from Pillar II of the CAP (Less Favourate Area support, | ||
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Natura 2000 payments to agriculture, | Natura 2000 payments to agriculture, | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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quantities of outputs sold, feed input coefficients, | quantities of outputs sold, feed input coefficients, | ||
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at the one hand EU, national and/or regional ceilings (maximum guaranteed areas or herds, budget ceilings), and at the other the definition of | at the one hand EU, national and/or regional ceilings (maximum guaranteed areas or herds, budget ceilings), and at the other the definition of | ||
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the premium payment mode (paid per ha/ | the premium payment mode (paid per ha/ | ||
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of 30 different schemes stemming from many different EU regulations. Entitlement of the so-called " | of 30 different schemes stemming from many different EU regulations. Entitlement of the so-called " | ||
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are endogenously integrated in the supply module.</ | are endogenously integrated in the supply module.</ | ||
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<P>A so-called spatial multi-commodity model. Supply and demand for a large number of agricultural raw and processed | <P>A so-called spatial multi-commodity model. Supply and demand for a large number of agricultural raw and processed | ||
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are determined simulaneously with market clearing prices. Spatial means covering bi-lateral trade flows.</ | are determined simulaneously with market clearing prices. Spatial means covering bi-lateral trade flows.</ | ||
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<P>A CGE model (Computable General Equilibrium Model) covers firstly all products and actitivities in an economcy, not just | <P>A CGE model (Computable General Equilibrium Model) covers firstly all products and actitivities in an economcy, not just | ||
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agricultural ones, and covers factor markets as well. Secondly, supply is determined in conjunction of a production function and first order condition for profit | agricultural ones, and covers factor markets as well. Secondly, supply is determined in conjunction of a production function and first order condition for profit | ||
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maximisation, | maximisation, | ||
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CGE models are typically less differentiated regarding agricultural products, and less explicit in modelling policy instruments. Finally, agricultural MCM | CGE models are typically less differentiated regarding agricultural products, and less explicit in modelling policy instruments. Finally, agricultural MCM | ||
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such as CAPRI are defined in physical quantities and related prices, whereas CGEs typically only cover volumes and price/ | such as CAPRI are defined in physical quantities and related prices, whereas CGEs typically only cover volumes and price/ | ||
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certain preferential trade agreements, a greater number of Tariff Rate Quotas, flexible levies for cereals and the | certain preferential trade agreements, a greater number of Tariff Rate Quotas, flexible levies for cereals and the | ||
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minimum entry price scheme for fruits and vegetables of the EU.</ | minimum entry price scheme for fruits and vegetables of the EU.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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Therefore, the CAPRI market model has " | Therefore, the CAPRI market model has " | ||
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capture trade flows, transport costs, tariffs, export subsidies and import prices at the level of these trade blocks. However, a trade | capture trade flows, transport costs, tariffs, export subsidies and import prices at the level of these trade blocks. However, a trade | ||
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block may be broken down to individual countries with own behavioural equations.</ | block may be broken down to individual countries with own behavioural equations.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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<P>It covers about 40.000 equations and variable which are solved simultaneously. Some of the equations are also highly non-linear. Nevertheless, | <P>It covers about 40.000 equations and variable which are solved simultaneously. Some of the equations are also highly non-linear. Nevertheless, | ||
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with good starting values, it can be solved in a few seconds.</ | with good starting values, it can be solved in a few seconds.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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enough parameter to be calibrated to any regular set of own and cross price elasticities. Regular means that the parameter | enough parameter to be calibrated to any regular set of own and cross price elasticities. Regular means that the parameter | ||
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set is calibrated as to be in line with the assumption of profit maximising producers and utility maximising consumers. For insiders: | set is calibrated as to be in line with the assumption of profit maximising producers and utility maximising consumers. For insiders: | ||
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that captures curvature of the Hessian.</ | that captures curvature of the Hessian.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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between iterations between the supply and market module so that these functions provide a second order proxy for the supply | between iterations between the supply and market module so that these functions provide a second order proxy for the supply | ||
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response from the regional programming models.</ | response from the regional programming models.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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and vegetable oils for bio-diesel. Substitution between feedstocks is modelled by a CES-demand function. In autumn 2010, a version with trade in | and vegetable oils for bio-diesel. Substitution between feedstocks is modelled by a CES-demand function. In autumn 2010, a version with trade in | ||
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<P>A software component which based on statistical methods distributes consistently regional results at the NUTS II level (crop areas, stocking densities, | <P>A software component which based on statistical methods distributes consistently regional results at the NUTS II level (crop areas, stocking densities, | ||
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fertilizer application rates) to clusters of 1x1 km grid cells to allow for environmental impact assessment and linkage to bio-phyiscal models. (see also )</P> | fertilizer application rates) to clusters of 1x1 km grid cells to allow for environmental impact assessment and linkage to bio-phyiscal models. (see also )</P> | ||
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one single 1x1 km grid cell and several ten thousands ones, dependig on the spatial variance of the delineation feastures</ | one single 1x1 km grid cell and several ten thousands ones, dependig on the spatial variance of the delineation feastures</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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The international trade model is globally closed according to FAO data, | The international trade model is globally closed according to FAO data, | ||
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and covers around 60 countries or country aggregates. The farm type version of the model covers around 1900 farm type respectively NUTS II models.</ | and covers around 60 countries or country aggregates. The farm type version of the model covers around 1900 farm type respectively NUTS II models.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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On top, there is a limited number of processed products included (dairy, oils and cakes, bio-ethnal and bio-diesel and the related by-products).</ | On top, there is a limited number of processed products included (dairy, oils and cakes, bio-ethnal and bio-diesel and the related by-products).</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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are available as time series, so are e.g. feed quantities only allocated for the base period. CAPRI covers and allocates all intermediate inputs | are available as time series, so are e.g. feed quantities only allocated for the base period. CAPRI covers and allocates all intermediate inputs | ||
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according to the definition of the Economic Accounts for Agriculture. | according to the definition of the Economic Accounts for Agriculture. | ||
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</P> | </P> | ||
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statistics on feed and fertilizer use, inter alia: (a) econometric estimates based on single farm data from the European Farm Accouting Data Network, | statistics on feed and fertilizer use, inter alia: (a) econometric estimates based on single farm data from the European Farm Accouting Data Network, | ||
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(b) engineering information (e.g. requirement function for animals or nutrient contents of crops), (c) standard gross margins. </P> | (b) engineering information (e.g. requirement function for animals or nutrient contents of crops), (c) standard gross margins. </P> | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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the Economic Accounts for Agriculture. The only exemption are fodder prices which reflect production costs.</ | the Economic Accounts for Agriculture. The only exemption are fodder prices which reflect production costs.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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realised in Java allows steering the system and explotiation of its results. The system is Windows based. The data | realised in Java allows steering the system and explotiation of its results. The system is Windows based. The data | ||
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base and scenario results are stored in a GAMS specific file format called GDX.</ | base and scenario results are stored in a GAMS specific file format called GDX.</ | ||
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run the full system including the international market model (otherwise, the model will swap on the hard disk and execution becomes | run the full system including the international market model (otherwise, the model will swap on the hard disk and execution becomes | ||
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very slow).</ | very slow).</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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<P>A full run (all 280 regions, international trade model used, iterations between supply and market part until convergence) takes about an 5-10 minutes on a fast multi-corPC. | <P>A full run (all 280 regions, international trade model used, iterations between supply and market part until convergence) takes about an 5-10 minutes on a fast multi-corPC. | ||
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That includes all post-model analysis and preparation of the inputs files for the table and mapping tools. Some scenarios might converge slowly, or even lead to infeasibilities in the market part, and run time can then increase then dramatically. | That includes all post-model analysis and preparation of the inputs files for the table and mapping tools. Some scenarios might converge slowly, or even lead to infeasibilities in the market part, and run time can then increase then dramatically. | ||
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Down-scaling the scenario to 1x1 grid cells takes about a working day. The farm type version takes around half an hour for a normal solution - but the same comments about convergence and feasibility apply.</ | Down-scaling the scenario to 1x1 grid cells takes about a working day. The farm type version takes around half an hour for a normal solution - but the same comments about convergence and feasibility apply.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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</UL> | </UL> | ||
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<A NAME=" | <A NAME=" | ||
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blocked for certain periods until publicly available. Access rigths are defined on the Software-Versioning server.</ | blocked for certain periods until publicly available. Access rigths are defined on the Software-Versioning server.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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improve it and use it for reseach and policy support. A team in Bonn, headed by Wolfgang Britz, co-ordinates these activities.</ | improve it and use it for reseach and policy support. A team in Bonn, headed by Wolfgang Britz, co-ordinates these activities.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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<P>A <A HREF="/ | <P>A <A HREF="/ | ||
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by the EU and public reseach institutions. Certain components and data may however at least for restricted | by the EU and public reseach institutions. Certain components and data may however at least for restricted | ||
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periods be accessible only for certain clients. The network tries to base CAPRI whereever possible on license free products and data sets, however, | periods be accessible only for certain clients. The network tries to base CAPRI whereever possible on license free products and data sets, however, | ||
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you need a <A HREF=" | you need a <A HREF=" | ||
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EU research programs. But potential users should be aware that is requires quite some time until one may use a complex system | EU research programs. But potential users should be aware that is requires quite some time until one may use a complex system | ||
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as CAPRI for policy impact analysis.</ | as CAPRI for policy impact analysis.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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- | and then incrementally maintained. Contact the team in Bonn for details.</ | ||
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+ | and then incrementally maintained.</ | ||
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involved in current projects, and, clearly clients as Commission services. Training session usually take part once a year in late | involved in current projects, and, clearly clients as Commission services. Training session usually take part once a year in late | ||
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summer/ | summer/ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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<!-- | <!-- | ||
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Sometimes you have to close the browser after you made such changes before they affect program behavior.</ | Sometimes you have to close the browser after you made such changes before they affect program behavior.</ | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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explorer. Make sure that " | explorer. Make sure that " | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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</LI> | </LI> | ||
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--> | --> | ||
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</UL> | </UL> | ||
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<font size=1> | <font size=1> | ||
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</ | </ | ||
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</ | </ | ||
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</ | </ | ||
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</ | </ | ||
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capri/faq_e.1328176898.txt · Last modified: 2022/11/07 10:23 (external edit)