input_allocation
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input_allocation [2020/02/11 09:49] – [Input allocation excluding young animals, fertiliser and feed] matsz | input_allocation [2020/02/11 10:01] – [Input allocation for young animals and the herd flow model] matsz | ||
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Following these rules we finally got a matrix of estimated and synthetic calculated input coefficients for both, the ‘per activity level’ and the ‘per production’ unit definition((In addition, a similar procedure (using slightly different groups) was applied to constructing coefficients for the ‘Other’ activities (e.g. OCER, OFRU, OVEG), which had been omitted from the econometric estimations. They are given the average group coefficient, | Following these rules we finally got a matrix of estimated and synthetic calculated input coefficients for both, the ‘per activity level’ and the ‘per production’ unit definition((In addition, a similar procedure (using slightly different groups) was applied to constructing coefficients for the ‘Other’ activities (e.g. OCER, OFRU, OVEG), which had been omitted from the econometric estimations. They are given the average group coefficient, | ||
- | The ‘per level’ definition was only taken over if the coefficient was really estimated or if no per production unit definition did exist. To transfer the latter into per activity level definition, we multiplied them with the average yield (1985 2001) of the respective activity. The resulting coefficients and their standard errors were then used a HPD approach as a first// set of priors// | + | The ‘per level’ definition was only taken over if the coefficient was really estimated or if no per production unit definition did exist. To transfer the latter into per activity level definition, we multiplied them with the average yield (1985 2001) of the respective activity. The resulting coefficients and their standard errors were then used a HPD approach as a //first set of priors// |
Missing econometric estimates and compatibility with EAA figures were not the only reasons that made a reconciliation of estimated inputs coefficients necessary. Moreover, the economic sense of the estimates could not be guaranteed and the definition of inputs in the estimation differed from the one used in CAPRI. Therefore we decided to include further prior information on input coefficients in agriculture. The //second set of priors// in the input reconciliation was therefore based on data from the EAA. Total costs of a certain input within an activity in a European Member State was calculated by multiplying the total expenditures on that input with the proportion of the total expected revenue of that activity to that of all activities using the input. Total expected revenue in this case was the production value (including market value and premiums) of the respective activity. If this resulted in a certain coefficient being calculated as zero due to missing data, then this coefficient would be replaced by one from a similar activity e.g. a zero coefficient for ‘MAIF’ would be replaced by the coefficient for ‘GRAS’ | Missing econometric estimates and compatibility with EAA figures were not the only reasons that made a reconciliation of estimated inputs coefficients necessary. Moreover, the economic sense of the estimates could not be guaranteed and the definition of inputs in the estimation differed from the one used in CAPRI. Therefore we decided to include further prior information on input coefficients in agriculture. The //second set of priors// in the input reconciliation was therefore based on data from the EAA. Total costs of a certain input within an activity in a European Member State was calculated by multiplying the total expenditures on that input with the proportion of the total expected revenue of that activity to that of all activities using the input. Total expected revenue in this case was the production value (including market value and premiums) of the respective activity. If this resulted in a certain coefficient being calculated as zero due to missing data, then this coefficient would be replaced by one from a similar activity e.g. a zero coefficient for ‘MAIF’ would be replaced by the coefficient for ‘GRAS’ | ||
- | This kind of prior information tries to give the results a kind of economic sense. For the same reason the //third type of priors// was created based on standard gross margins for agricultural activities received from EUROSTAT. Those existed for nearly all activities. The set from 1994 was used, since this was the most complete available. Relative rather than absolute differences were important, given the requirement to conform to EAA values((Contrary to the econometric estimated priors, the two other types were different in different years, since the reconciliation had to be done for each year in the database. The second prior type is year.)). | + | This kind of prior information tries to give the results a kind of economic sense. For the same reason the //third type of priors// was created based on standard gross margins for agricultural activities received from EUROSTAT. Those existed for nearly all activities. The set from 1994 was used, since this was the most complete available. Relative rather than absolute differences were important, given the requirement to conform to EAA values((Contrary to the econometric estimated priors, the two other types were different in different years, since the reconciliation had to be done for each year in the database. The second prior type is year specific by nature, as the EAA values differ between years. In case of standard gross margins, unfortunately, |
+ | Given the three types of prior information explained above –estimated input coefficients, | ||
+ | The Highest Posterior Density estimation yields monetary input coefficients for the fertiliser types (Nitrate, Phosphate, Potassium), seeds, plant protection, feeds, pharmaceutical inputs, repairs, agricultural service input, energy and other inputs. While some of these can be directly used in the CAPRI model, we need special treatments for others –e.g. fertilisers, | ||
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+ | ====Input allocation for young animals and the herd flow model ==== | ||
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+ | Figure below shows the different cattle activities and the related young animal products used in the model. Milk cows (DCOL, DCOH) and suckler cows (SCOW) produce male and female calves (YCAM, YCAF). The relation between male and female calves is estimated ex post in the COCO framework. These calves are assumed to weigh 50 kg at birth (see gams\feed\feed_decl.gms) and to be born on the 1st of January. They enter immediately the raising processes for male and female calves (CAMR, CAFR) which produce young heifers (YHEI, 300 kg live weight) and young bulls (YBUL, 335 kg). The raising processing are assumed to take one year, so that calves born in t enter the processes for male adult fattening (BULL, BULH), heifers fattening (HEIL, HEIH) or heifers raising (HEIR) on the 1st January of the next year t+1. The heifers raising process produces then the young cows which can be used for replacement or herd size increasing on the first of January of t+2. The table below the diagram shows a numerical example (for DK, 1999-2001) for these relationships. | ||
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+ | **Figure 5. The cattle chain** | ||
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+ | {{: |
input_allocation.txt · Last modified: 2022/11/07 10:23 by 127.0.0.1